Getting to the Bottom of a Bottle Job

Look, Liverpool have the best record against the top six of any team in the Premier League. Manchester City hired the most famous manager in the world, and have not one but two guys named Jesus. Manchester United bought the most expensive player ever. Arsenal haven’t finished outside the top four in two decades. But alas, it’s poor, bumbling Tottenham, with the sixth highest wage bill, and the youngest squad in England, who have truly “bottled it” by not winning the title they were never favored to win. Spurs, who won NINE consecutive league matches to give themselves a fighting chance of catching league-leaders Chelsea in the first place, are somehow losers again for achieving their highest ever league points total, their most ever league wins, and likely their best ever Premier League finish.

This isn’t Steven Gerrard birthing a million “slip-up” memes, it’s a team playing its fourth consecutive London derby, coming off the emotional catharsis of finally, finally canceling St. Totteringham’s day and simply running out of gas against a West Ham team who right now literally care about nothing more than beating Tottenham. It’s a team that in the past three seasons has gone from dreaming about top four and staying out of the Europa League to making serious runs at the gotdang league title in consecutive years.

I’m told their manager, Mauricio Pochettino, has never won anything. He must be a real zero to finish ahead of Pep Guardiola, José Mourinho, Arsène Wenger and Jürgen Klopp. If Pochettino is a choke artist, what the hell are these guys? Spurs “bottling it” is a false narrative built on false expectations that no one can recall actually having until this past Friday. But nothing gets the pundit class all aflutter like the image of silly old Tottenham falling on their faces.

How to Fix "Broken" Spurs

Let’s play a little game – forget this weekend’s emphatic result and assume for the sake of this exercise that Tottenham Hotspur, a team who once again have the stingiest defense in the league, have been defeated only once in the league, and sit in fifth place in the league, only three points below fourth, are not OK. Let’s accept the case that the team’s underlying numbers are just “meh” and that they trail the top tier clubs in terms of creating good goal scoring chances. For the sake of argument let’s also throw out the team’s injuries as the key source of the “problems” they’ve faced in the first 13 games of the season. The biggest clubs in England have re-loaded after Leicester City’s fairy-tale title win a season ago and poor, cash strapped Tottenham are once again lagging behind. So, what can they do? How do they go up a gear from a decent, well-drilled battering ram into a truly elite big-chance creating title/top 4 contender again? How do they “solve” Christian Eriksen and Mousa Dembélé, two ridiculously talented players who, according to some Spurs fans, are playing badly enough to warrant losing their spots in the lineup? How do they mature tactically despite Mauricio Pochettino, a manager who excels at creating team spirit but struggles with tactics and in-game adjustments? Here are three simple fixes that might help kick-start things:

Can Pochettino Rotate?

Rotating a big squad isn’t as easy as it sounds. Just ask Rafa Benitez, who stands by his policy of refreshing the tree of liber…err his team from time to time, yet inevitably faces scathing criticism every time he does it. Most managers prefer to have a core XI who play together as much as possible to develop a collective spirit and cohesion. But at higher levels of the game, where teams compete in three or even four competitions simultaneously, it’s impossible to keep such a small squad healthy and fit through an entire season. Also, now that many elite teams frequently employ two or even three internationals at every position, getting game time for everyone is more a requirement than a luxury, necessary to maintain harmony in the group. For the manager, who already has to deal with a multitude of responsibilities (unless you’re Harry Redknapp), juggling lineups can become quite a burden.

I don’t have the stats from his time at Espanyol and Southampton, but it’s safe to say that Mauricio Pochettino is now in charge of the largest, deepest group of players he’s ever had. Rotating between two full squads worth of quality Premier League players is a new experience, and something he’s going to have to learn to manage. He’s also admitted that part of his hiring at Spurs was contingent on him taking domestic and international cup competitions more seriously than he had in the past. Pundits and critics are quick to remind us of how Poch claimed to “hate” the Europa League last season and how he “cynically” refused to name a strong team in a cup game against Sunderland, one that Southampton lost 1-0. Everybody wants to play in the Premier League, but the cup competitions give Poch a chance to get games for his second stringers and to rotate in players who might be recovering from injury or suspension. The overall depth of the squad means that can still field a strong teams for every game. However, if he sticks too long with a first XI and a cup XI he will almost certainly have players grumbling about their roles.

The results of Poch’s rotation so far have been mixed. Not because he’s been rotating badly, but that he hasn’t really been doing it at all. Instead of moving three or four players in or out between league and cup games, he’s essentially created a first and second team. In and of itself that’s fine, as it allows the two groups of players to begin developing partnerships in important areas – the back four, the central midfield two etc. What’s been somewhat troubling is who Poch has assigned to the backup squad. Specifically, Federico Fazio and Jan Vertonghen, who are likely Spurs’ best two center backs, have begun the season with the second unit. Hopefully this is just about returning Jan to full match fitness after a minor injury, and easing the two into a partnership that will eventually anchor the backline.

It’s early days yet, but it will be interesting to see if players who are currently playing only in cup games can work their way into the first team squad (or vice versa). Poch has said that he examines each player individually after every game (likely for health issues as well as performance), so it’s likely that he considers each position in his squad before settling on a lineup for an upcoming match. Once the season reaches full grind, injuries and form will no doubt force Poch to juggle his lineups. How he handles this, while keeping everyone happy, will go a long way toward determining Spurs success in the league as well as the cups.

Kyle Walker, and Why Spurs Are So Weird About Injuries

If Kyle Walker was an NFL running back or a Major League outfielder we would know by now the exact nature of his “lower-abdomen” injury, as well as the likely time frame for his recovery. We would expect weekly, if not daily updates on the injury, his rehab and even the names of the doctors he has been consulting. In the NFL especially there are strict, although inconsistently enforced, rules governing how teams must inform the public of the status of their injured players. Such is the level of scrutiny in North American sports when it comes to medical issues.

Contrast that to Tottenham Hotspur, where players often disappear for weeks on end and managers have to dance around the fact that they don’t know where their injured players are or when they will return. Official team releases usually refer to general areas of the body when describing injuries instead of using specific medical terms, and rarely identify the exact tests or procedures players have undergone. They use words like, “scans” or “surgical procedures” whereas Americans consider more sophisticated terms like, “MRI” and  “Microfracture surgery” basic parts of their everyday sports vocabulary. English fans aren’t stupid (on the whole), so why the dumbing down of basic medical information? Tottenham are particularly weird when it comes to communicating about player injuries. They tend to play down reports of a player being out long-term before eventually admitting it when it becomes overtly obvious. But perhaps other English Premier League teams are better about it.

It’s fair to question why teams should be expected, or forced, to release specific medical information about their players in the first place. After all, opposing teams can use the information to their advantage, so being vague or nebulous when it comes to injuries is a good way to keep them guessing. Bill Belichick, Head Coach of the New England Patriots, specializes in this sort of obfuscation. But he is something of an outlaw, and a continuing pain in the ass to league officials.

The real answer here is likely pretty simple. Two billion dollar industries in North America depend on precise, accurate information about the status of players: gambling and fantasy sports. Also, the sports media machine here asks specific medical questions and expects specific medical answers. While the gambling industry is clearly huge in England, it either has its own inside sources for medical information or doesn’t yet use its influence to demand more openness from teams. Fantasy soccer is growing in popularity, but pales in comparison to the monolith that is fantasy football in North America. I imagine Brits won’t be seeing a sitcom based around fantasy Premier League on ITV anytime soon.

In regard to Walker’s injury, it does seem likely that it began as a fairly minor issue that he attempted to heal through rest and rehab. At some point recently he and the club clearly decided that it wasn’t working and that surgery would be required to resolve the issue. Does that sound overly vague? Sorry, but I’m going to need more information.

Who the Hell is Going to Start Against West Ham?

I’m writing this on August 7^th, 2014. The Premier League season begins in less than two weeks and the transfer window closes in less than a month. For all I know Tottenham Hotspur could look dramatically different well before then, maybe even in the next few days. But even if nothing further changes I am sitting here struggling to imagine what Spurs’ starting lineup will look like when they open their campaign at West Ham. Iago Falque and Gylfi Sigurdsson are already gone. Most of the club’s World Cup representatives have barely trained, let alone actually had any game action.  Rumors continue to swirl that the club are looking to add new players in defense, on the wings and in the midfield. Players like Kyle Walker and Andros Townsend are returning from serious injuries. Michael Dawson is already hurt, and as far as I know there has been no public update on his status. So the question remains: who the hell is going to start against West Ham?

Brad Friedel wouldn’t be the opening day starter anyway, but he’s fallen further down the depth chart with the arrival of Michel Vorm. So Hugo Lloris is a pretty certain favorite to begin the season between the posts.

In front of him things are hazy, as usual. At center back, I would be surprised if Jan Vertonghen makes it, given that he has only recently re-joined the squad. He also made public comments implying that he was still nursing a minor injury. Hopefully he gets major minutes against Schalke on Saturday and demonstrates that he’s fit. Dawson, as mentioned, appeared to hurt himself against Celtic, so his health remains a question mark. That leaves Younes Kaboul, Zeki Fryers and Miloš Veljković. Of the three, Kaboul is by far the most likely to make the start, with one of the two youngsters perhaps making the bench. Eric Dier, the England u-21 international who Spurs signed from Sporting Lisbon will probably be more slowly integrated into the squad. So the question remains whether Daniel Levy will be able (or willing) to complete the rumored transfer for Mateo Musacchio from Villareal. Recent reports indicate that Levy is willing to play the waiting game, perhaps delaying the eventual transfer, if it happens, until after the start of the season. If I were a betting man, which thankfully I’m not, I’d peg Kaboul and Dawson as the opening day starters. I would also hope to not see that particular pairing again in the 2014-15 season.

At full back, much depends on the health of Kyle Walker, who played one half during Spurs’ North American tour. I naively figured he’d be further along in his recovery from the groin injury he suffered last season, but in his brief appearance he looked pretty sluggish and slow. That’s not shocking in early August, but if Walker can’t go at right back that means Kyle Naughton will get the nod. Everyone has a player on their favorite team who irrationally makes them crazy. For me it’s often a tie between Kyle Naughton and Danny Rose.  I get the sense that both could very well be playing. Excuse me while I hyperventilate into a paper bag. Let’s silently pray together that Ben Davies has been assured of the starting left back spot from day one.

Look, I read, watch and listen to a metric ton of Spurs related content on a daily basis and I have zero clue who will be starting in Spurs’ midfield aside from Christian Eriksen. Here are the options for the likely two remaining spots: Mousa Dembélé, Paulinho, Lewis Holtby, Etienne Capoue, Sandro, Nabil Bentaleb and the biggest long shot, Ryan Mason. Does manager Mauricio Pochettino want a double pivot? Does he prefer a deep-lying passer? Maybe he likes a destroyer alongside a box-to-box player? I don’t think we can read too much into what we saw in North America because of how many players were missing, nor do I think we should assume that Pochettino will simply graft on the same system he used at Southampton. It may depend entirely on fitness, but who knows. You could literally pick names out of a hat at this early stage. Also, there remains the outside possibility that Spurs could complete a deal in the next two weeks to either deal a midfielder or bring one in. The initial fireworks surrounding Morgan Schneiderlin appear to have died down amidst public statements from his club that he is not for sale.  I don’t really see the need for the Frenchman, but I freely admit to suffering a strange kind of Stockholm syndrome when it comes to Spurs’ incumbent midfielders.

On the wings I fully expect to see Aaron Lennon starting, because Aaron Lennon always starts. I look forward to seeing Erik Lamela begin the season (strongly!) on the right. Lamela has looked reborn so far in preseason and I hope Pochettino looks to continue that momentum. That would mean Lennon on the left where he’s looked poor in the past, although he has played well there so far this summer. Unless Spurs swing a deal for Memphis Depay (at which point the name on my new kit is suddenly sorted), Nacer Chadli and Andros Townsend will also be options. Chadli probably won’t start given his lack of training time and Townsend has not looked 100% in his injury recovery. One constant in Pochettino’s system so far is the interchange between the front four, so perhaps the initial formation won’t really matter. If he really wants to mix things up he could also start Harry Kane as a wide forward, which would unfortunately leave whoever starts at left back woefully exposed defensively.

Up front, things are significantly clearer, at least in the short term. Emmanuel Adebayor is still recovering from a bout with malaria and Harry Kane is probably not ready to lead the line every game. Roberto Soldado has looked good so far, especially in his hold-up play, his passing and his movement. He’s also developing a nice connection with Lamela, both on and off the field. I hope to see that continue.

Spurs fans have been somewhat negatively conditioned by the two previous managers to anticipate bananas lineups and to be ready to rage the moment they’re announced. In this case only a few spots seem obvious so we can only trust in Pochettino to know exactly what he wants to begin the season strongly.

Here’s my predicted lineup, in a 4-2-3-1.

Lloris, Naughton, Dawson, Kaboul, Rose, Capoue, Holtby, Lamela, Eriksen, Lennon, Soldado

Can Mauricio Pochettino Learn a Lesson From Brendan Rodgers?

Mauricio Pochettino comes to Tottenham Hotspur with a philosophy and a “system” – he knows exactly how he wants his players to play and what types of players he needs.  At Southampton he was highly successful at implementing his ideas, but he was occasionally accused of being too dogmatic, too beholden to his system to adapt to different situations. In many ways, the personnel at Spurs should fit his system perfectly, as many of the players were acquired with former coach Andre Villas-Boas’ preferred style in mind. Like Pochettino, AVB encouraged a high press and a corresponding high defensive line, looking to create turnovers deep in the opponent’s half and turn them quickly into scoring chances. Unfortunately for AVB, he never got to finish the project, and the current Spurs squad remains somewhat imbalanced. If Pochettino squints hard enough, he may be able to see several like-for-like comparisons between these players and his charges at Southampton. He should certainly enjoy working with attackers like Christian Eriksen and Erik Lamela. Rumors have also been swirling that Pochettino would like to reunite with some of his former players, such as Morgan Schneiderlin and Jay Rodriguez. But as Liverpool manager Brendan Rodgers learned in his first season on Merseyside, sometimes the best system is to work with what you’ve got.

Rodgers tried initially to get the Reds to play the way his Swansea team did, to relentlessly control possession and probe until they could identify the perfect scoring chance. The results were mixed and Liverpool finished seventh. A season later Rodgers decided to switch things up: he changed his formation to accommodate both Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge, and he adapted the team’s style of play to be more direct in order to take advantage of the tremendous pace in the frontline. From being one of the league’s most patient teams, Liverpool suddenly became one of the most aggressive – the blitzkrieg attack against Arsenal was a perfect example. 

Without the ability to read Pochettino’s mind there’s no way to know from afar how he’s assessed this Tottenham squad – especially since he himself hasn’t seen many of the players yet. But we have to hope that he will be more adept than his predecessors at finding the right mix, and putting pieces in their proper places. Certainly his bosses will be happy to know that the manager can mold a proper team without breaking the bank (again) for shiny new players. It’s a daunting task, especially in the midfield where Spurs have a collection of players with unique but limited skillsets. Pochettino made his bones at Espanyol and Southampton working wonders with small, cheaply built squads. So we shouldn’t be quick to assume that he will simply graft the setup he had at Southampton onto the personnel he has at Spurs. He has never had the heft of the current squad or the resources now available to him, so it’s possible that we see an evolution in his system.

Hugo Lloris: The One Who Stayed

Tottenham Hotspur announced today that France captain and star goalkeeper Hugo Lloris has put pen to paper on a new five-year contract to stay at the club. Lloris also spoke in no uncertain terms of his commitment to Spurs and of his confidence in new manager Mauricio Pochettino. Despite the cynical (and realistic) possibility that the deal simply represents a way for Daniel Levy to secure a larger transfer fee should Lloris decide to leave, Spurs fans should be thrilled.

There are two reasons for joy: first off, Hugo Lloris on his day is one of the best keepers not only in the Premier League, but in the world. In addition to being a superb shot-stopper, his quickness and aggression in sweeping up behind his defense fits perfectly with the defensive system Pochettino will look to employ with Spurs. His value to the club far outweighs the financial benefit Levy would gain by selling him, so keeping him around for as long as possible can only be a good thing.

The second reason to be excited about Hugo's new deal is more symbolic. By agreeing to stick with the "project" at Tottenham, Lloris has made a bold statement that the club is not a sinking ship, and that last season, while hugely disappointing, was a blip in an otherwise positive trend. Whether his similarly "unsettled" teammates (looking at you Jan) follow suit is uncertain. However, for potential new recruits, Lloris' decision to stay represents a firm endorsement of the work the club has been doing to raise their profile and to make Spurs a perennial Champions League contender. If Michael Dawson leaves this summer, Lloris would also be an excellent choice for captain based on his repeatedly demonstrated level of professionalism and class.

That said, keepers rarely change teams for large transfer fees and should Lloris decide that Spurs' ambitions no longer match his, the club will be able to cash in nicely. Finding a top-ten keeper is hard, but good ones can be had at reasonable prices. The likely net profit could be reinvested in typical Spurs fashion to address other needs in the squad.