Can Pochettino Rotate?

Rotating a big squad isn’t as easy as it sounds. Just ask Rafa Benitez, who stands by his policy of refreshing the tree of liber…err his team from time to time, yet inevitably faces scathing criticism every time he does it. Most managers prefer to have a core XI who play together as much as possible to develop a collective spirit and cohesion. But at higher levels of the game, where teams compete in three or even four competitions simultaneously, it’s impossible to keep such a small squad healthy and fit through an entire season. Also, now that many elite teams frequently employ two or even three internationals at every position, getting game time for everyone is more a requirement than a luxury, necessary to maintain harmony in the group. For the manager, who already has to deal with a multitude of responsibilities (unless you’re Harry Redknapp), juggling lineups can become quite a burden.

I don’t have the stats from his time at Espanyol and Southampton, but it’s safe to say that Mauricio Pochettino is now in charge of the largest, deepest group of players he’s ever had. Rotating between two full squads worth of quality Premier League players is a new experience, and something he’s going to have to learn to manage. He’s also admitted that part of his hiring at Spurs was contingent on him taking domestic and international cup competitions more seriously than he had in the past. Pundits and critics are quick to remind us of how Poch claimed to “hate” the Europa League last season and how he “cynically” refused to name a strong team in a cup game against Sunderland, one that Southampton lost 1-0. Everybody wants to play in the Premier League, but the cup competitions give Poch a chance to get games for his second stringers and to rotate in players who might be recovering from injury or suspension. The overall depth of the squad means that can still field a strong teams for every game. However, if he sticks too long with a first XI and a cup XI he will almost certainly have players grumbling about their roles.

The results of Poch’s rotation so far have been mixed. Not because he’s been rotating badly, but that he hasn’t really been doing it at all. Instead of moving three or four players in or out between league and cup games, he’s essentially created a first and second team. In and of itself that’s fine, as it allows the two groups of players to begin developing partnerships in important areas – the back four, the central midfield two etc. What’s been somewhat troubling is who Poch has assigned to the backup squad. Specifically, Federico Fazio and Jan Vertonghen, who are likely Spurs’ best two center backs, have begun the season with the second unit. Hopefully this is just about returning Jan to full match fitness after a minor injury, and easing the two into a partnership that will eventually anchor the backline.

It’s early days yet, but it will be interesting to see if players who are currently playing only in cup games can work their way into the first team squad (or vice versa). Poch has said that he examines each player individually after every game (likely for health issues as well as performance), so it’s likely that he considers each position in his squad before settling on a lineup for an upcoming match. Once the season reaches full grind, injuries and form will no doubt force Poch to juggle his lineups. How he handles this, while keeping everyone happy, will go a long way toward determining Spurs success in the league as well as the cups.

Premier League back four groups: Update

Back in March I put up a fan post over at the always sexy Cartilage Free Captain looking at how many different back four combinations Spurs had used up to that point in the season. I also did the same for Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City to see how they compared. Mostly I wanted to illustrate how rarely Spurs best four defenders actually took the field together (spoiler: zero times). I recently decided to go back and update the data to include the remainder of the Premier League season, as well as any additional competitions the teams were involved in after March 11^th. I should note that since ESPNFC’s new layout sucks and constantly crashes my browser, I switched to using www.football-lineups.com for the lineups. UPDATE: Realized it might not be clear, all this data refers to players who started the match, not subs.

You can find the original post here: http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2014/3/12/5498534/the-back-four

What happened since March 11? Well, Spurs played an additional 11 matches in all competitions and managed to use an additional five(!) different back four combinations, including that mind-melting Naughton, Sandro, Fryers, Rose defense against Benfica.

By comparison, Arsenal used only two more different combinations through the rest of their season, which included the second leg against Bayern Munich and their final two FA Cup matches. Arsenal used their most common foursome: Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny and Gibbs a whopping 20 times during the season. Spurs most frequent back four: Walker, Dawson, Chiriches and Rose appeared together only seven times. Walker, Kaboul, Vertonghen and Rose, Spurs’ ideal back four (at least pre-season) still didn’t have a single appearance together.

Chelsea led this table by a mile, using only a single additional combination (thanks to Tomáš Kalas’s two appearances) and a total of 11 all season.

Liverpool, who seemed to be mixing and matching every week, finished the season with 19 different combinations, but used only their two most frequent lineups (Johnson, Agger, Skrtel, Flanagan and Johnson, Skrtel, Sakho, Flanagan) after March 11^th.  Despite ultimately falling short in their title bid, Liverpool lost only once in that stretch, in the stunning 2-0 defeat to Chelsea.

Finally, the champions Manchester City used only one additional defensive foursome but finished the season trailing only Spurs in terms of the total number used (21). City's shaky back line was often cited as their major weakness, but their thunderous offensive production clearly made up for it.

The additional data doesn’t really shed any new light, beyond reinforcing the fact that Spurs were a mess at the back in every possible way. They used the most different lineup combinations, and their most common foursome appeared together the fewest times. Not the ideal recipe for success. One manager meltdown and one manager composed mostly of chewing gum were the two primary reasons for all the chaos, but injuries were a constant, debilitating thorn in the side of team trying to create any kind of defensive cohesion. We can only hope that under Pochettino the team achieves some more stability (and health!) at the back.

For ease of use, here is the final data in order or number of total combinations, most popular combination, and how many times it was used. 

Spurs: Total combinations: 22, Most frequent: Walker, Dawson, Chiriches, Rose (7 appearances)

Arsenal: Total combinations: 14, Most frequent: Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Gibbs (20 appearances)

Chelsea: Total combinations: 11, Most frequent: Ivanovich, Terry, Cahill, Dave (26 appearances)

Liverpool: Total combinations: 19, Most frequent: Johnson, Agger, Skrtel, Flanagan (9 appearances)

Manchester City: Total combinations: 21, Most frequent: Zabaleta, Kompany, Dimichelis, Kolarov (11 appearances).

The Devil’s Advocate: Keep Paulinho and Sell Dembélé

I just threw up a little in my mouth. Ok, wait I’m better now.

Tottenham Hotspur have too many midfielders. This was true last season, despite Lewis Holtby leaving on loan and Etienne Capoue missing much of the season due to injury. This season, with loanees like Holtby and also English-Xavi Tom Carroll returning and the emergence of Nabil Bentaleb, the glut is only growing. Chairman Daniel Levy needs to clear the decks somewhat in order to streamline the squad and make room for new signings at other positions. It’s difficult to speak specifically to who fits where given that we don’t yet know how new manager Mauricio Pochettino intends to structure his midfield, but Paulinho vs Mousa Dembélé is a good point of entry. 

Paulinho and Dembélé are similar in that they provide one or two very good skills in midfield but also have significant limitations. However, Paulinho’s ability to provide a goal-scoring threat from deep and a more varied passing range makes him the more valuable player. Chelsea rumor aside, his disappointing season for Spurs and poor recent performances for Brazil mean that his potential transfer fee will probably not be much higher than Dembélé’s. 

We know that Pochettino preferred a double-pivot of defensive-minded players to anchor his midfield at Southampton. We also know that the occasional pairing of Paulinho and Dembélé in midfield last season was usually a disaster. Neither player is instinctively defensive, and the pair struggled to balance those defensive responsibility with the desire to push forward. So it’s extremely unlikely that the two will see much time on the field together. Rather than having them compete for a single spot alongside a true DM, Spurs should probably try to cash in on one and give his minutes to one of the club’s younger midfielders.

After the disappointment of this past season, the knee-jerk reaction of many fans would be to ship out the underachieving Paulinho. Advertised as the Brazilian Lampard after the Confederations Cup, his first Premier League campaign saw him more often labeled the Brazilian Jenas. The prevailing image of Paulinho is probably a quick shot from an excellent scoring position somehow fizzing into the stratosphere. However, just from the eye test it seemed that most of Paulinho’s shots (while terrible) came as a result of getting into very good attacking positions. If he can improve his accuracy, which I believe is possible unless he is just an insanely poor shooter, his goal tally should rise considerably this season. By contrast, I will admit that Dembélé’s ability to “ghost” past defenders, seemingly in slow motion, is probably my single favorite skill to watch as a fan. However, Dembélé’s limitations are often glaring. It seems incredible to me that the Belgian began his career as a striker given his weakness as a goal-scorer and his reluctance to test opposing keepers from distance. He also tends to pass sideways, often ignoring the opportunity to play through balls forward in favor of spreading the ball wide. While some of this may be explained by the specific tactical instructions he was given by AVB and Tim Sherwood, his inability to play a key pass was even more obvious when he was occasionally pushed forward to play as the highest attacking midfielder.

Another issue concerns tempo. Dembélé has on more than one occasion dribbled by a defender, only to slow up, wait for the defender to recover, and then dribble by him again. While immensely fun to watch, innumerable counterattacking opportunities for Spurs have fallen by the wayside while Dembélé shows off his bag of tricks. On the other hand, Paulinho seems to prefer playing at a faster pace. His passing range isn’t great either, but he is more willing to deliver a direct ball or play a quick short pass followed by movement into the attacking third. In a system like Pochettino’s, where Spurs will be expected to transition from defense to attack as quickly as possible, Paulinho’s skills seem a better fit.

Dembélé has a single, elite-level skill, but otherwise is a fairly limited player. Paulinho doesn’t possess a single world-class attribute, but his combination of above average offensive abilities, in concert with a defensive midfielder and a more creative AM like Christian Eriksen would create a versatile, cohesive midfield unit. By selling Dembélé, Spurs would still have a group of midfielders with a variety of different strengths, while allowing space in the squad to focus on their younger crop of developing players.  If nothing else, since Spurs won’t have the sort of enormous financial windfall they received from selling Gareth Bale a year ago, selling a midfielder would provide the more modest return that could help them afford other transfer targets.

Author’s Note: This is purely pragmatic argument. As an emotional Spurs fan I love Dembélé and there’s no way I would sell him. In fact I’d probably keep both and put my faith in Pochettino to find a way to balance and rotate the midfield in order to make use of everyone.

Author’s Note #2: I understand that Lewis Holtby is likely not going to be considered a deeper-lying midfielder and will instead be competing with Eriksen and Sigurdsson (if he stays) for minutes as an AM. 

Spurs' Transfer Plans Are a Total Mystery

A number of factors make it almost impossible to tell exactly what Tottenham Hotspur intend to do in this summer’s transfer window. For one, they have a brand new head coach in Mauricio Pochettino, who has yet to meet and evaluate his squad. While he may already have in mind who he wants to keep and who he wants he sell, it seems unlikely that drastic changes would be made before he has a chance to see his players in person. Secondly, a number of current Spurs players could be described as “unsettled”. Hugo Lloris, Jan Vertonghen, Sandro, Paulinho and even Erik Lamela have been rumored to be exploring their options, which may include leaving the club. 

The departures of these or other current squad members would directly alter the team’s strategy, as new positional holes would open up and the money made from any sales would increase the budget for new players. Perhaps most importantly from an outsider perspective, we have no way of knowing precisely what amount of money Daniel Levy has allotted for the transfer budget in the first place. Unlike last season, when Gareth Bale’s transfer meant a massive influx of cash into Tottenham’s coffers, this summer we can only speculate how much spending money Franco Baldini will have. Reports have suggested around £50 million, but who knows how firm that number is, and how it might be adjusted if Spurs sell players before making any purchases. 

One of Baldini's great successes in his first transfer window was basically pre-spending the Bale money, setting up a series of transfers with the understanding that the funds would appear if and when the deal with Real Madrid was finalized. By laying the ground work, Spurs were able to move extraordinarily quickly to wrap up their moves as soon as the money was available. Considering the uncertainty regarding possible sales this summer, and the fact that there isn't a single player who would command a massive fee, it's doubtful that Baldini could repeat this trick. But then again, those of us outside the club don't know how close certain key players are to the exit door. It's absolutely possible that Spurs have a set of targets in mind in the event that a Hugo Lloris or Jan Vertonghen force a move. Seeing a theme here?

Should Spurs hang on to their "unsettled" players, only a few positions need serious reinforcement (or upgrading). It's been music to fans' ears to hear that Pochettino has identified left back, central defense and striker as positions of need. The £50 million that's been floated should be more than sufficient to address these holes but probably means there won't be a single massive purchase. Considering that despite selling Jake Livermore, Spurs have a glut of central midfielders (especially with the pending return of English Xavi Tom Carroll and the emergence of Nabil Bentaleb), it wouldn't be surprising to see Baldini trim the numbers some there. Any midfield additions, such as the bizarre rumored deal for 33-year-old Esteban Cambiasso would necessitate at least one midfielder (but probably two) going in the other direction.

It's fair to predict that beyond some minor repairs Spurs likely won't be making any big splashes in the transfer market unless there is a dramatic departure from the current squad. More to come as things develop.