Thursday, July 3, 2014

The Devil’s Advocate: Keep Paulinho and Sell Dembélé


I just threw up a little in my mouth. Ok, wait I’m better now.

Tottenham Hotspur have too many midfielders. This was true last season, despite Lewis Holtby leaving on loan and Etienne Capoue missing much of the season due to injury. This season, with loanees like Holtby and also English-Xavi Tom Carroll returning and the emergence of Nabil Bentaleb, the glut is only growing. Chairman Daniel Levy needs to clear the decks somewhat in order to streamline the squad and make room for new signings at other positions. It’s difficult to speak specifically to who fits where given that we don’t yet know how new manager Mauricio Pochettino intends to structure his midfield, but Paulinho vs Mousa Dembélé is a good point of entry. 

Paulinho and Dembélé are similar in that they provide one or two very good skills in midfield but also have significant limitations. However, Paulinho’s ability to provide a goal-scoring threat from deep and a more varied passing range makes him the more valuable player. Chelsea rumor aside, his disappointing season for Spurs and poor recent performances for Brazil mean that his potential transfer fee will probably not be much higher than Dembélé’s. 

We know that Pochettino preferred a double-pivot of defensive-minded players to anchor his midfield at Southampton. We also know that the occasional pairing of Paulinho and Dembélé in midfield last season was usually a disaster. Neither player is instinctively defensive, and the pair struggled to balance those defensive responsibility with the desire to push forward. So it’s extremely unlikely that the two will see much time on the field together. Rather than having them compete for a single spot alongside a true DM, Spurs should probably try to cash in on one and give his minutes to one of the club’s younger midfielders.

After the disappointment of this past season, the knee-jerk reaction of many fans would be to ship out the underachieving Paulinho. Advertised as the Brazilian Lampard after the Confederations Cup, his first Premier League campaign saw him more often labeled the Brazilian Jenas. The prevailing image of Paulinho is probably a quick shot from an excellent scoring position somehow fizzing into the stratosphere. However, just from the eye test it seemed that most of Paulinho’s shots (while terrible) came as a result of getting into very good attacking positions. If he can improve his accuracy, which I believe is possible unless he is just an insanely poor shooter, his goal tally should rise considerably this season. By contrast, I will admit that Dembélé’s ability to “ghost” past defenders, seemingly in slow motion, is probably my single favorite skill to watch as a fan. However, Dembélé’s limitations are often glaring. It seems incredible to me that the Belgian began his career as a striker given his weakness as a goal-scorer and his reluctance to test opposing keepers from distance. He also tends to pass sideways, often ignoring the opportunity to play through balls forward in favor of spreading the ball wide. While some of this may be explained by the specific tactical instructions he was given by AVB and Tim Sherwood, his inability to play a key pass was even more obvious when he was occasionally pushed forward to play as the highest attacking midfielder.

Another issue concerns tempo. Dembélé has on more than one occasion dribbled by a defender, only to slow up, wait for the defender to recover, and then dribble by him again. While immensely fun to watch, innumerable counterattacking opportunities for Spurs have fallen by the wayside while Dembélé shows off his bag of tricks. On the other hand, Paulinho seems to prefer playing at a faster pace. His passing range isn’t great either, but he is more willing to deliver a direct ball or play a quick short pass followed by movement into the attacking third. In a system like Pochettino’s, where Spurs will be expected to transition from defense to attack as quickly as possible, Paulinho’s skills seem a better fit.

Dembélé has a single, elite-level skill, but otherwise is a fairly limited player. Paulinho doesn’t possess a single world-class attribute, but his combination of above average offensive abilities, in concert with a defensive midfielder and a more creative AM like Christian Eriksen would create a versatile, cohesive midfield unit. By selling Dembélé, Spurs would still have a group of midfielders with a variety of different strengths, while allowing space in the squad to focus on their younger crop of developing players.  If nothing else, since Spurs won’t have the sort of enormous financial windfall they received from selling Gareth Bale a year ago, selling a midfielder would provide the more modest return that could help them afford other transfer targets.

Author’s Note: This is purely pragmatic argument. As an emotional Spurs fan I love Dembélé and there’s no way I would sell him. In fact I’d probably keep both and put my faith in Pochettino to find a way to balance and rotate the midfield in order to make use of everyone.

Author’s Note #2: I understand that Lewis Holtby is likely not going to be considered a deeper-lying midfielder and will instead be competing with Eriksen and Sigurdsson (if he stays) for minutes as an AM. 

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